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Chapter 4065 Crisis Analysis

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    Actuary Jiang An sighed, "The secret society is powerful. Fortunately, we successfully prevented their terrorist attacks. Otherwise, if we adopt a two-pronged approach, the Moroccans will inevitably be overwhelmed and worry about one thing and the other."

    "So the local armed forces in Western Sahara will have a certain advantage. And as the war progresses, this advantage will become bigger and bigger?" Sausage asked.

    The actuary was silent for a while, "That's not true. Even though the Moroccans have lost a little advantage, they have a large number of people and strong troops. Although they are suffering a small loss at present, they have the advantage in military strength and equipment.

    Don¡¯t forget that they also have a large number of mechanized troops and a fairly strong air force.  It is actually very simple to remedy this disadvantage.

    But what we are most afraid of now is that the Western Sahara local armed forces will not fight the Moroccans seriously.  These people were originally from militias, irregular troops, and were familiar with how to survive in desert areas.

    In addition, they also have the support of secret society organizations and a broader mass base in Western Sahara.

    Once they want to fight guerrillas against the Moroccans, although they will not defeat the Moroccans, they will definitely be able to maintain a long-term stalemate with the Moroccans.

    Even if they will inevitably fall behind in the end, even if they delay, they can still drag the Moroccans half to death.  "

    "How can some militiamen fight guerrilla warfare against the Moroccans?" Sausage shook his head, "In modern warfare, guerrilla warfare has been proven to be unsuitable for large-scale and long-term continuation."

    Jiang An shook his head, "Don't underestimate guerrilla warfare. Generally speaking, guerrilla warfare is just a tactical issue. But under special circumstances, guerrilla warfare can also rise to a strategic level.

    The U.S. military¡¯s fight in the Vietnam War is the best proof.  The Vietnam War was the war with the largest number of participants and the most significant impact that the United States participated in after World War II. In the end, the United States failed in the Vietnam War.

    The United States, with its powerful military, directly participated in this war with 650,000 people, and more than 100,000 people were killed, injured, and missing.  During the entire Vietnam War, the United States lost 8,612 aircraft.

    The U.S. economy has experienced a sharp decline, the dominance of the U.S. dollar has been severely hit, and a huge fiscal deficit has emerged.

    This war even completely changed the competition between the United States and the Soviet Union: throughout the 1970s, the United States shifted to a strategic defensive position, while the Soviet Union was in a strategic offensive position.

    At that time, many US military experts believed that the Vietnam War was lost to the enemy's guerrilla warfare.  A large number of irregular troops and sneak attacks everywhere.  The U.S. military, which won World War II, suffered heavy losses in Vietnam.  "

    "Do you think those armed militias in Western Sahara can defeat the Moroccans? It's not such an exaggeration, right?" Sausage asked.

    "It's impossible. It's hard for history to repeat itself, and the situation and conditions on both sides are completely different from those during the Vietnam War." Jiang An shook his head, "But what I want to say is that it is very likely that they will reach a stalemate for a period of time.

    And this deadlock will eventually be broken by a compromise by one party, and then both parties return to the negotiating table.  "

    "You mean the Moroccans will compromise?" Scarface whispered.

    Actuary Shogan nodded, "It's very possible. Because the people of Western Sahara have nothing to lose. But the Moroccans have many concerns.

    Because the Western Sahara issue has been difficult to resolve, it has not only seriously hindered Morocco's economic and social development, but also adversely affected regional stability and development, regional integration, and the global anti-terrorism situation.

    Due to the discord between Morocco and Algeria, the construction of the Arab Maghreb Union has stalled; since 1984, Morocco has always been outside the African Union due to the Western Sahara issue.

    In the war on terrorism, the border areas of Morocco, Algeria, Western Sahara and Mauritania have become important bases for terrorist organizations to plan attacks due to lack of effective management.

    Recently, Morocco announced that it would sever diplomatic relations with Iran because of Iran¡¯s support for the Popular Front of Western Sahara.

    The reason given by Morocco for severing diplomatic relations is that Iran provides funds, transports weapons and assists in training personnel to the People's Liberation Front of Western Sahara through Lebanese Hezbollah, which seriously threatens Morocco's national security and interests.

    In the past decade or so, Morocco has been at odds with many countries over the Western Sahara issue, including its important neighbor and potential rival Algeria.

    In fact, many of them are relatively influential countries in the Arab world.

    ¡°But I don¡¯t think Morocco will really make itself alone.  When the pressure reaches a certain level, Moroccans have to compromise.

    The reason is simple: the Western Sahara armed groups are militias.  Take up arms, they are warriors??Lay down their weapons, they can be anyone.

    Maybe it¡¯s a date vendor selling dates on the street, an ordinary office worker, or even an old man sitting on the street basking in the sun.  An old lady wearing a black headscarf and walking slowly.

    In the confrontation between the Moroccans and them, armed suppression is inevitable.  This will bring a lot of negative news, with the army massacring civilians and soldiers shooting women and children.

    Those international humanitarian organizations will immediately stand up and condemn, as well as various charitable organizations and the United Nations Security Council.

    Although Morocco¡¯s economic aggregate ranks sixth in Africa, North Africa ranks third.  But phosphate exports, tourism and remittances are the main pillars of Morocco's economy.

    Their agriculture has a certain foundation, but they cannot be self-sufficient in food, so they need to import it.  Once their international image gets too bad, relevant countries impose a phosphate trade embargo on them and ban grain exports.

    Coupled with the impact of the war, the tourism industry is in decline.  Morocco's economic power will plummet.  These things need to be considered as a Morocco.

    But as Western Saharans, they have nothing to worry about.  Because they originally had nothing.  Even if the international community cuts off aid to them, it will only be against the Popular Front of Western Sahara.

    Rather than targeting those local armed forces, for those local armed forces, as long as the sponsors provide them with money and weapons, they can fight.  "

    Lin Rui couldn't help but laugh bitterly, "That's why people who are barefoot are not afraid of wearing shoes. Moroccans have families, houses and property, so they naturally have a lot of worries.

    Those Western Sahara militiamen have nothing but their lives.  Either fight for food and clothing, or hand over this miserable life.  Anyway, they don't want to sit in the desert and suffer from cowardice.  "

    "If you say so, wouldn't things develop as the secret society expects?" Sausage asked with a frown.

    "I think it's too early to say, because there is still a huge variable. That is the Popular Front of Western Sahara. They are currently the recognized legal government in Western Sahara. And they still have us." The actuary said  replied.

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