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Junshan Notes: Taoism credibility statistics and forecast analysis for the next 100 years

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    This article was published in the fourth week of May of "Junshan Notes". It is the opinion of Junshan Friends and has nothing to do with Babao Taoist.

    Author: Qi Zhixiu - Friends of Junshan

    (Part 1)

    ?Limited to Zhao Ran¡¯s Taoist position, the first time Babao Taoist mentioned ¡°faithfulness¡± was after the victory at Baima Mountain in the 20th year of Jiajing [1]. Junshan Temple contributed 336,000 Gui of faith in the 19th year of Jiajing.  It was later mentioned that the total credit of Sichuan Province in Jiajing 19 years was 56 million Gui, ranking ninth among the thirteen provinces in the two capitals [2, 3].  Later, it also introduced the amount of faith required to receive the urn, ranging from 18,000 gui in the Taoist realm to 72,000,000 gui in the Hedao realm [4].  The first time the total national credibility was explicitly mentioned was in Jiajing 20, it was 1.2 billion Gui [5].  From then on, from the 20th year of Jiajing to the 28th year of Jiajing, the total national trust income was clearly specified [7-18].  The only exception was the 24th year of Jiajing. Taoist Babao only gave the per capita credit contribution of the Ming Dynasty that year, which was about 10 Gui [11].  Based on the population of the Ming Dynasty in Jiajing 20 years (110 million) [5] and the world's average annual population growth rate (1.2%), it is estimated that the population in Jiajing 24 years was 115 million.  The trust income is 1.15 billion guinea.  From 20 to 28 years of Jiajing, the national annual credit income first increased (from 20 to 22 years), then decreased (from 23 years to 24 years), and then increased again (after 25 years).  Among them, it was the lowest in 24 years.  If we ignore the huge credibility brought by Zhang Laodao's ascension (51 million guine), the actual credibility in 2022 is lower than the income in 2021.  However, Zhang Laodao's ascension consumes far more credibility than his positive income: a total of 5.4 billion credibility was consumed, including 3.6 billion to build the Hong Bridge and 1.8 billion to resist the 18 thunderstorms [6].

    Based on the above assumed population growth rate, the per capita annual contribution of the Ming Dynasty from 20 to 28 years of Jiajing was the lowest at 10 Gui (24 years) and the highest at 11.57 Gui (28 years).  Interestingly, in Jiajing 21 and 22 years, the per capita contribution credit was 11.17 and 11.39 kyu, ranking fourth and second highest in the 9 years.  The reason may be that at that time, the Shangsan Palace and the imperial court had not yet behaved as they would later.  Per capita contribution credit began to increase in the 25th year of Jiajing.  The reason is probably that the monks hold the Taoist position in the Shifang Jungle.

    Considering the limitations of environmental resources on population, it is assumed that the population of the Ming Dynasty will not exceed 150 million in the foreseeable decades (data from the 28th year of Wanli in this world is 59 years away from the 20th year of Jiajing).  There are two ways to predict the national credibility after the 28th year of Jiajing: one is to predict the growth of per capita credibility based on the effectiveness of preaching; the other is to determine the annual growth rate of national credibility based on the overall view.

    For the first method, the average annual per capita trust growth can be extrapolated from the actual data from Jiajing 25 to 28.  Over the four years, the growth rate fluctuated between 1.22% and 6.66%, with an average of 3.74%.  However, trustworthiness per capita will not continue to grow.  According to Jiajing 20-year data, the per capita credit contribution of Xixia was 15 Gui, while that of Tubo was as high as 22 Gui [5].  So if the per capita trust contribution of the people of the Ming Dynasty is limited to 15 Gui per year, this limit will be reached in the 35th year of Jiajing, which means that the per capita trustworthiness of the Ming Dynasty will not increase after the 36th year of Jiajing; if the limit is 22 Gui in Tubo  , then the upper limit of per capita credibility was reached in Jiajing 45.  For the first case, the next time the total inventory power of the Ming Dynasty reached 6 billion Guyana was in the 41st year of Jiajing, which was 19 years after Zhang Laodao's ascension.  Note that this calculation method takes into account that only 20% of the trust income enters the credit pool of the general view, and that after Zhang Laodao's ascension, the total view still has a stock of 1.2 billion gui.  The next time it was able to provide the 6 billion Gui credit required for the Hedao realm monks to ascend was 13 years later in the 54th year of Jiajing.  Since neither the population nor the per capita trust will grow in the future, the overall trust income will reach a balance, that is, 6 billion Gui will be provided every 13 years to boost trust.  Regarding the per capita confidence of the upper limit of 22 Gui, the next ascension time is in the 40th year of Jiajing and the 18th year after Zhang Laodao's ascension; the subsequent ascension time intervals are 10 years and 9 years, and will stabilize at 9 years.  Therefore, increasing the upper limit of per capita credibility from 15 Guyana to 22 Guyana will provide one more opportunity for Zhang Laodao to ascend in the 40 years after his ascension (3 times, compared to 4 times).  Considering that there are actually ten Hedao realm monks in the Taoist sect, all the required faith (60 billion Gui) will be gathered from 100 to 136 years after Zhang Laodao's ascension.

    For the second way of formulating the credibility growth rate from an overview, the results are similar to the above discussion.  The current overall outlook establishes an annual growth rate of 5%, which translates into an increase in per capita credibility of 3.75%, which is very close to the 3.74% annual growth rate of per capita credibility in the first plan.  This shows that Taoism¡¯s overall view respects objective laws.

    This prediction only estimates the time it takes for Hedao realm monks to ascend on a one-hundred-year scale based on the growth of their faith. The actual situation is also affected by many factors, such as the age of Hedao realm monks, the order of ascension, and the time required to practice to the perfection of Hedao realm.  Time, number of new members, etc.  On a larger time scale, such as two hundred or even five hundred years, the number of monks will be affected by more factors, such as the number of bone-setting pills issued and the success rate of bone-setting, lack of practice resources, struggles within Taoist sects, disputes between Buddhism and Taoism, Confucianism and Taoism  Struggles between emperors and Taoists, etc.

    references:

    1Volume 7 Chapter 55

    2Volume 7 Chapter 66

    3Volume 7 Chapter 67

    4Episode 8 Chapter 4

    5Volume 9Counting 100 years before the 18th year of Jiajing, the population of Ming Dynasty was more than 59.8 million.  Corresponding to the number of monks of 129,000, there are two monks per thousand people (0.22%), which is slightly higher than the current ratio (0.12%).  If we continue to use the current ratio and set the upper limit of the population at 150 million, then in 120 years, the number of monks with complete qualifications will be 180,000.

    Before calculating the number of monks increased by using the Bone-setting Pill, you must first consider the influence period of the Bone-setting Pill, that is, the time affected by each successful bone-setting.  This cycle is mainly affected by the longevity of monks.  Since it is difficult for most monks to enter the mage realm (life span is 80 years) [4], a rough calculation of the effect of one bone setting resets after 100 years.  In recent years, an average of more than 700 bone-setting pills have been distributed each year [2], with some allowance being made so that no more than 1,000 pills are given each year.  After a hundred years of continuous distribution of bone-setting pills, each year is affected by the number of bone-setting pills distributed in the previous 100 years.  Therefore, after 120 years, the total number of bone-setting monks who entered the spiritual practice was approximately 100,000.

    There are currently more than 130,000 monks. There are at most 10 Hedao monks and at least 9 monks in the Hedao realm. There are about 7 Hedao monks for every 100,000 monks.  According to this ratio, after 120 years, about 13 of the 180,000 monks who do not need bone-setting will be able to practice Buddhism; and out of the 100,000 monks who will undergo bone-setting and enter spiritual practice, there will be 7 of them.  Therefore, 120 years later, there were 280,000 monks in the Ming Dynasty, 20 of whom were monastics.  According to the previous prediction of credibility, 120 years later, 10 Hedao including Pan Yuanjun have been promoted; and at least one new Hedao has been promoted after Pan Yuanjun.  After that, all Hedao are new Hedao, and the interval between each ascension is 9 years.  Hedao, ranked 14th in ascending order, has to wait 126 years.  If this monk is about 160 years old like Pan Yuanjun when he enters Hedao, he can still ascend at the age of 286.  Hedao, ranked 15th to 20th, has to wait 135 to 180 years.  If one's lifespan is limited, there is indeed little hope of ascension.

    Considering the speed of monks¡¯ cultivation, Chu Yangcheng entered the realm of spiritual cultivation in 34 years and can be called a genius [7].  The time required to refine the void to achieve harmony is unknown, but is estimated to be 20 years.  Hedao was perfected in the 38th year of Zhang Dazhen and the 33rd year of Shao Datianshi [6].  Therefore, a monk can wait for ascension in as little as 90 years.  Just like Master Zhang Dazhen gave up the order of ascension (two orders), or like Patriarch Longyang who postponed his ascension for 81 years, future genius monks are likely to give up the order of ascension to the less advanced Hedao who has a short life span.  Therefore, the current trust system may be able to support the promotion of 20 Hedao in 120 years.

    4.Population limit

    This analysis uses 150 million as the upper limit of the population of the Ming Dynasty.  If a higher upper limit is considered, such as 1.5 billion, both the number of monks and the total income from faith will change.  120 years later, the total number of bone-setting monks who do not need to be set is more than 287,000, of which there can be 20 comrades; there are also 100,000 bone-setting monks, of which 7 are comrades.  A total of 27 Hedao.  The population has exceeded the upper limit of 150 million, which also brings a lot of credibility.  Currently, it will take a total of 93 years for the ten Hedao to ascend.  After that, the ascension interval gradually dropped from 7 years to 5 years.  After 120 years, the ascension interval has decreased even further.  If only the 27 Hedao are considered, the last Hedao will have to wait at most 135 years to ascend, which is even faster than the 180 years estimated in the previous analysis.  For the longer term, Hedao¡¯s growth in quantity and credibility requires further analysis.

    5 Conclusion

    In the next 120 years, if the per capita credibility can be guaranteed to continue to increase to 22 Kyu at an annual growth rate of 3.74%, and the number of bone-setting pills distributed each year does not exceed 1,000, it will be possible to ensure that there will be 10 Hedao people today and 14 Hedao people in the same period in the future.  Smooth ascension; the success of the Hedao ascension of those ranked 15 to 20 depends on the age of the monk and the exchange order of the monks in the top ranking.  If the population growth of the Ming Dynasty can exceed the upper limit of 150 million, according to this trust development model, 27 Hedao people who can coexist in the same period can still rise smoothly in 120 years.

    references

    1. Volume 7, Chapter 91 Guests from Longhu Mountain

    2. Volume 12, Chapter 101 The Instigator

    3. Volume 12, Chapter 56 Zhang Tengming¡¯s Opportunity

    4. Volume 6, Chapter 9: Summoned into Qingcheng

    5. Volume 9 Chapter 52 Cause and Effect

    6. Volume 11 Chapter 149 General Backstage

    7. Is Chapter 87 of Volume 9 wrong or right?

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